War and the Cost of Living: 100+ Statistics on How the Iran and Ukraine Wars Raised Prices Worldwide (2026)

Brent crude rose from $71 a barrel on 27 February 2026 to $130 on 8 October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IMF now expects global inflation of 4.7% this year, against the 3.8% it forecast in January before the war began.

The two wars hit prices through different channels. The 2022 Ukraine shock was mainly a gas and grain shock that landed hardest on Europe. The 2026 Iran shock is mainly an oil and fuel shock that is landing hardest on fuel importers in Asia, Africa and southern Europe, so the same country can sit at opposite ends of the two rankings.

This page covers oil, fuel, gas, food, shipping and consumer inflation for both wars, then ranks the countries hit hardest. Every figure links to the agency, central bank or statistics office that published it.

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Oil and fuel

• Brent crude: $71.32 on 27 Feb 2026, $130.18 on 8 Oct 2026, up 83% (EIA)
• Oil exports disrupted at the peak of the Hormuz closure: nearly 20 million barrels a day, the largest disruption on record (IEA)
• US petrol: $2.94 a gallon before the war, $4.50 at the May peak, $4.28 on 19 October (EIA)
• US diesel: $3.81 before the war, a record $6.53 on 21 September (EIA)
• EU diesel: €1.59 a litre before the war, a record €2.24 on 28 September (European Commission)

Food and shipping

• FAO Food Price Index: 125.3 in February 2026, 136.0 in September, up 8.5% (FAO)
• Urea fertiliser: up 80% by April, back about 12% below its pre-war price by mid-September (World Bank, IMF)
• War-risk insurance for a Gulf transit: from 0.25% to as much as 10% of a ship’s value (FAO)

Inflation

• Global inflation 2026: 4.7%, against 3.8% forecast before the war (IMF)
• Euro area energy inflation: minus 3.1% in February 2026, plus 18.9% in September (Eurostat)
• US CPI: 2.4% in February, 3.7% in September; energy up 20.4% (BLS)

Hardest hit

• Iran: 89.8% year-on-year inflation in September 2026 †
• Qatar’s economy: forecast to grow 6.1% in 2026 before the war, now forecast to shrink 15.6% (IMF)
• Pakistan inflation: 7.0% in February, 11.7% in May (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics)
• Philippines inflation: 4.1% in March, 7.2% in April (Philippine Statistics Authority)
• Spain: from the second-lowest inflation in the EU in October 2022 to seventh-highest in the EU in September 2026 (Eurostat)

The 2022 comparison

• Inflation peaks after the Ukraine invasion: euro area 10.6%, UK 11.1%, US 9.1% (Eurostat, ONS, BLS)
• Prices are 28% higher in the UK than at the end of 2020, 24% in the US and 23% in the euro area (ONS, BLS, Eurostat)

How Much Has the 2026 Iran War Raised Oil Prices?

Brent crude rose from $71.32 a barrel on 27 February 2026, the last trading day before the war, to $130.18 on 8 October 2026, according to the EIA. That is an 83% rise, and within 3% of the 2022 peak of $133.18.

The supply loss behind those prices was the largest ever recorded. About 20.9 million barrels a day moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, roughly a fifth of world consumption, according to the EIA. The IEA called the March disruption “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.

Our working: 2.8 billion barrels lost against world demand of about 102 million barrels a day (IEA, October 2026) is about 27 days of global consumption that never arrived. September flows were still only about half the pre-war level.

Prices rose less than the supply loss alone would suggest. The IMF counts 1.8 billion barrels of cumulative losses by July, more than in 1973 or 1990, and credits four offsets: a pre-war surplus of about 2.1 million barrels a day, about 280 million extra barrels from producers outside the Gulf, 750 million barrels of lost demand, and about 440 million barrels drawn from inventories. The IEA’s 2.8 billion runs to mid-September and counts export losses, so the two figures measure different things.

Refined fuels rose much faster than crude. Between late February and mid-September, jet fuel rose about 85%, diesel 68% and petrol 45%, with refining margins at a historic high, according to the IMF.

How Much More Are Drivers Paying at the Pump?

US regular petrol averaged $2.94 a gallon in the week of 23 February 2026 and $4.50 at its peak in the week of 11 May, according to the EIA. On 19 October it was $4.28, still 46% above the pre-war price.

Our working: US diesel rose 71% from 23 February to its September peak, and EU diesel 40% to its peak. Filling a 15-gallon tank with US regular costs about $20 more than before the war; filling a 55-litre diesel tank in the UK cost about £33 more in early October than in February.

EU prices include all taxes, and several governments cut fuel duties during the year, so the pre-tax rise is larger. Spain’s statistics office says its September fuel inflation would have been 36.4% at constant tax rates instead of the 27.7% recorded.

Which US states have seen the biggest petrol price rises?

Petrol in the Rocky Mountain region rose 68% between 23 February and 19 October 2026, the biggest rise of any US region, according to the EIA. California has the highest price at $6.03 a gallon, but the smallest percentage rise among the larger states because it started from $4.44.

Source: EIA weekly retail gasoline prices, regular, all formulations (20 Oct 2026). Change is our calculation.

West Coast prices rose about as much in cents as everywhere else (California up $1.59, against $1.35 for the US average) but less in percentage terms because they started higher. California and the West Coast set their 2026 highs in early October, not May. Two baselines fall on unusual weeks: Ohio’s 23 February price was a one-week spike, which understates its rise, and Colorado’s was a one-week dip, which overstates it.

What Has the War Done to Gas and Electricity Bills?

European gas prices rose about 70% week on week after the first strikes, according to the EU energy regulator ACER, and by September were about 150% above pre-conflict levels, according to the IMF. That is still well below the 2022 peak.

Household bills follow with a lag because of regulated tariffs. In Britain, Ofgem’s price cap has risen twice since the war began:

Ofgem changed its assumed typical consumption in July, so £1,641 and £1,663 are not comparable. The 13% is Ofgem’s like-for-like figure.

Europe felt the gas shock through the global price rather than through lost cargoes. About 20% of the world’s LNG passes through Hormuz, but only about 7% of Europe’s LNG imports do, against 27% of Asia’s, according to the IEA. In 2022 the position was reversed: Russia supplied 45% of EU gas imports in 2021, and the cut-off hit Europe directly.

How Much More Expensive Has Food Become Since the Strait of Hormuz Closed?

The FAO Food Price Index rose from 125.3 points in February 2026 to 136.0 in September, up 8.5% in seven months, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. September was the highest reading of 2026 but still 15% below the March 2022 record.

The path from a closed strait to a dearer loaf runs through fertiliser and shipping. The urea spike has reversed, but phosphate stayed high because of export restrictions and the sulphur shortage. Wheat rose sharply from June, driven as much by Russia-Ukraine export disruption and weather as by the Gulf.

The hunger figures are scenarios, not counts. The World Food Programme warned in March that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict ran past mid-year with oil above $100. By June, the FAO and WFP counted around 266 million people facing high acute food insecurity across 13 hunger hotspots.

What Has Happened to Shipping and Insurance Costs?

Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell by about 95%, according to UNCTAD, and war-risk insurance for a Gulf transit rose from 0.25% to as much as 10% of a vessel’s value, according to the FAO.

Container rates roughly doubled between late March and mid-October, but tariffs and Suez routing also moved during the year, and Drewry attributes current rates to broad geopolitical uncertainty. Not all of the rise is down to Hormuz.

How Much Inflation Has the Iran War Added Worldwide?

The IMF expects global inflation of 4.7% in 2026, against the 3.8% it forecast in January before the war, and calls the conflict a “war-induced negative supply shock”. It expects world growth of 3.1% this year, down from 3.3% in January.

The pass-through shows clearly in the monthly data:

Energy inflation was in double digits in August in every G7 country except Japan, which has been subsidising fuel. OECD food inflation, by contrast, fell to 2.8%, its lowest since July 2021: in rich countries this is so far an energy shock, not a food shock. In the US, March 2026 brought the biggest one-month petrol rise in the CPI series, 21.2%.

Which Countries Have Been Hit Hardest by the Iran War?

Iran itself is worst affected: inflation reached 89.8% year on year in September 2026, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran †, and the IMF projects 78.6% for the year, second only to Venezuela. Among fuel importers, Pakistan’s inflation rose from 7.0% in February to 11.7% in May and the Philippines’ from 4.1% in March to 7.2% in April.

Which economies have shrunk the most?

The Gulf’s own economies are shrinking even as their export prices soar, because the oil cannot leave. The IMF expects Qatar’s economy to shrink 15.6% in 2026, against the 6.1% growth it forecast before the war, and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region (MENAP) to shrink 1.3%.

Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, Table 1.2 (22 Oct 2026); pre-war column from IMF World Economic Outlook Statistical Appendix Table A4 (Oct 2025) and IMF MCD briefing (20 Oct 2025). Egypt, Iran and Pakistan are fiscal years. The IMF did not publish a pre-war GCC aggregate in the WEO.

Countries with no export route around Hormuz (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar) were hit hardest. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were cushioned by pipelines, and Oman, outside the strait, is growing slightly faster than forecast. The IMF expects MENAP inflation to rise from 11.7% in 2025 to 13.8% in 2026, while subsidies, price controls and dollar pegs hold GCC inflation to 2.7%.

IMF 2026 inflation projections for popular destinations, 2025 in brackets: Philippines 5.6% (1.7%), Vietnam 4.7% (3.3%), UAE 4.5% (1.3%), Greece 4.2% (2.9%), Australia 3.9% (2.8%), Spain 3.7% (2.7%), US 3.6% (2.7%), UK 3.3% (3.4%), Portugal 3.2% (2.2%), euro area 3.1% (2.1%), Japan 2.0% (3.2%). These are annual averages; the IMF’s end-of-year figures are higher. For the UK, the annual average is slightly below 2025 because inflation was higher in early 2025, even though the Bank of England expects it to rise above 4% in early 2027.

Real pay is slipping again. The OECD reports that real statutory minimum wages fell 1.5% on average between January and April 2026, and that real wages in 13 of 37 OECD countries were still below their early-2021 level before this shock began.

Which EU Countries Have the Highest Inflation Now?

Romania (6.5%), Lithuania (6.1%) and Bulgaria (5.6%) had the highest annual inflation in the EU in September 2026, with Spain seventh at 5.0%, according to Eurostat. In October 2022, Spain had the second-lowest rate in the EU.

Source: Eurostat euro indicators, HICP annual rates (16 Oct 2026 and 17 Nov 2022). Ranks are our calculation; = marks a tie.

The table has turned over. In 2022 Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary and Latvia, exposed to Russian gas, topped the table while France and Spain sat at the bottom. In 2026 the oil and fuel shock lifts southern Europe and the Mediterranean, where transport fuel takes a bigger share of household spending, while Hungary is now joint 25th. Spain’s statistics office puts its September rise down to fuel: fuels up 27.7%, food and non-alcoholic drinks up just 2.7%.

Which Countries Are Most Exposed to the Strait of Hormuz?

About 80% of the oil and 90% of the LNG that passes through Hormuz goes to Asia, according to the IEA. Gulf crude made up 77% of Japan’s crude supply and 62% of South Korea’s crude imports in 2025.

The inflation ranking broadly follows this map: the Philippines, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, which import most of their fuel and much of it via Hormuz, saw the sharpest jumps. Japan is even more dependent but has held energy inflation negative through subsidies, so dependence alone does not predict the inflation outcome.

How Much Did the Ukraine War Raise Prices in 2022?

Brent crude peaked at $133.18 a barrel on 8 March 2022, twelve days after Russia’s invasion, according to EIA data, and the FAO Food Price Index hit its all-time high that month, up 12.6% in a single month. The biggest shock was gas: the Dutch TTF spot price hit a record €320 per megawatt-hour on 26 August 2022.

Russia and Ukraine supplied about 30% of world wheat exports in 2021 and 78% of sunflower oil exports, according to the FAO. Russia alone supplied 16% of global urea exports, and Russia and Belarus together about 40% of potash, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The Black Sea Grain Initiative moved 32.8 million tonnes of food out of Ukraine between August 2022 and July 2023, according to the UN.

Where did inflation peak after Russia invaded Ukraine?

Euro area inflation peaked at 10.6% in October 2022, the highest since the euro was created, with energy up 41.5%, according to Eurostat. UK inflation peaked at 11.1% the same month and US inflation at 9.1% in June 2022, the highest since 1981.

Sri Lanka’s inflation peaked at 69.8% in September 2022 and Pakistan’s at 38.0% in May 2023. Both were domestic crises made worse by the commodity shock rather than caused by it.

How much of the 2022 inflation was caused by the war?

Energy and food accounted for more than two-thirds of euro area inflation in 2022, according to the ECB, and the Federal Reserve estimated that the war added about 1.3 percentage points to global inflation by the second half of 2022.

No official body has published a single “X% of inflation was the war” figure for 2022, because pandemic supply problems and stimulus were already pushing prices up before the invasion.

What Did the Ukraine Shock Cost Households?

Real wages across the OECD fell 3.8% in the year to the first quarter of 2023, in 30 of 34 countries with data, according to the OECD. In Britain, Ofgem’s cap for a typical household rose from £1,277 in October 2021 to an announced £3,549 in October 2022, though the government held bills at about £2,500.

Nearly one in five people in Spain and Greece could not keep their home adequately warm in 2024, two years after the gas shock and before the oil shock began. Figures for 2025 and 2026 are due in 2027.

Is the 2026 Shock Bigger Than the 2022 One?

Not yet, on most measures. OECD energy inflation peaked at 15.7% in May 2026 against 28.1% in October 2022, and OECD headline inflation at 4.6% against 10.7%. Oil is the exception: Brent at $130 in October 2026 is within 3% of its 2022 peak.

Our working: the last column divides the 2026 figure by the 2022 figure. 2026 figures are the latest or peak so far, and several are still rising.

Three things have kept the 2026 shock smaller for consumers, even with oil at 2022 levels. Gas: Europe’s 2022 crisis was a gas crisis, and Hormuz carries only about 7% of Europe’s LNG. Food: Russia and Ukraine were grain and oilseed exporters, while the Gulf’s role in food runs through fertiliser, and the urea spike reversed within months. Starting point: inflation was 1.9% in the euro area and 2.4% in the US in February 2026, whereas the 2022 shock landed on post-pandemic inflation that was already rising.

The comparison is not settled. The ECB expects euro area inflation to peak only in the fourth quarter of 2026, the Bank of England expects UK inflation above 4% in early 2027, and US diesel is already above its 2022 record.

How Much More Does Life Cost Now Than Before the Wars?

Consumer prices rose 28.3% in the UK between December 2020 and December 2025, 24.4% in the US and 23.2% in the euro area, according to the ONS, BLS and Eurostat. Across the OECD, prices in August 2026 were 39.9% higher than in December 2019.

Our working: €100 of shopping in the euro area at the end of 2020 cost about €123 at the end of 2025, before the 2026 shock. Annual euro area inflation ran 2.6% (2021), 8.4% (2022), 5.4% (2023), 2.4% (2024) and 2.1% (2025).

The EU cut Russia’s share of its gas imports from 45% in 2021 to about 13% in 2025, which is why the 2026 gas shock arrived through prices rather than missing supply. The World Bank puts Ukraine’s reconstruction needs at almost $588 billion over the next decade.

For current monthly living costs by destination, see CostLiving’s pages for Spain, Portugal, Greece, the UK and the United States, or compare the UK and Spain side by side.

How to Read These Numbers

• Spot or futures. EIA’s $130 (October) is the physical Brent spot price; $118 (31 March) is the front-month futures contract. The IEA’s Dated Brent is a third series. The IMF’s “about 50% above pre-war” for September refers to Brent “above $100” during that month, not the October spot high.
• Pre-war or early-war forecasts. IMF forecasts from April 2026 were made six weeks into the war. This page uses the January 2026 update or the October 2025 tables as the pre-war baseline.
• HICP or national CPI. Eurostat’s harmonised index differs from national measures (Spain, September 2026: CPI 4.9%, HICP 5.0%; Greece CPI 5.0%, HICP 5.1%). The EU ranking uses HICP; other figures are labelled.
• Annual average or end of year. IMF projections are annual averages unless stated.
• Point-to-point or 12-month average. Iran’s 89.8% is year on year for one month; the 73.6% also reported is a 12-month average.
• Fertiliser shares. Estimates range from a quarter to a third of traded fertiliser depending on whether they count origin or transit, and urea alone or all fertiliser.
• Scenarios are not outcomes. The WFP’s 45 million and the Dallas Fed’s 0.6 to 1.1 points are model scenarios with stated conditions.
• Ofgem caps. Ofgem changed its typical-consumption assumption in July 2026, so caps before and after are not directly comparable.
• † Secondary sources. These figures were read on a reputable outlet quoting the official body because the official site could not be reached: Statistical Centre of Iran (via IranWire), Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics monthly figures before August (via The Business Standard), Bangladesh fuel rationing (via Prothom Alo and BSS), Qatar National Planning Council (via Qatar News Agency), S&P Global shipping data (via Al Jazeera) and the 26 March Drewry reading (via Daily Cargo News).

Conclusion

The two wars raised the cost of living through different channels. The Ukraine invasion was a gas and grain shock that gave Europe its worst inflation since the euro began and pushed the Baltics and Hungary above 20%. The Iran war is an oil and fuel shock: it has lifted the IMF’s 2026 global inflation forecast from 3.8% to 4.7%, pushed US diesel past its 2022 record, and fallen hardest on Iran, the Gulf economies that cannot ship their oil, and fuel importers from Pakistan and the Philippines to Spain and Greece. Oil is back at 2022 levels; how much of the rest follows depends on how long the strait stays contested.

Sources

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